One study focused on the chances that humans could one day make contact with an alien civilization.
Research has shown that the Milky Way is home to millions of potentially habitable planets, and about four of them could play host to hostile alien civilizations that would invade Earth if they could, research suggests.
Therefore, this research focuses on the possibility that one day humans may come into contact with a hostile alien civilization capable of invading our planet.
To tackle this task, study author Alberto Caballero, a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain, analyzed the history of armed conflict on Earth and then inferred that we, as a human civilization, attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet to assess hostility The prevalence of extraterrestrial civilizations.
Caballero first counted the number of countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022. He found that a total of 51 of the 195 countries in the world launched some type of invasion during this period. The United States topped the list with 14 invasions during this period. Next, he evaluated the probability that each country would launch an invasion based on its percentage of world military spending. In this case, the United States also ranks first with 38% of world military spending.
Assuming that the frequency of human invasions continues to decline during that time at the same rate that invasions have decreased over the past 50 years, then the human race has a 0.0014% chance of invading another planet when we potentially become a civilization. interstellar, 259 years from now.